Data Provenance
Each story metric is tied to one or more official series. Observation dates come from the local stored dataset; release cadence and lag notes come from registry metadata.
GDP Level
Nominal gross domestic product in current dollars.
Series ID: bea.gdp.nominal
Provider: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Cadence: quarterly
Units: USD_BILLIONS
Latest observation: Oct 1, 2025
Release note: Quarterly releases with advance/second/final revisions.
QoQ Change
Quarter-over-quarter percent change in nominal GDP.
Series ID: bea.gdp.nominal
Provider: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Cadence: quarterly
Units: USD_BILLIONS
Latest observation: Oct 1, 2025
Release note: Quarterly releases with advance/second/final revisions.
YoY Change
Year-over-year percent change in nominal GDP.
Series ID: bea.gdp.nominal
Provider: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Cadence: quarterly
Units: USD_BILLIONS
Latest observation: Oct 1, 2025
Release note: Quarterly releases with advance/second/final revisions.
Receipts (TTM)
Trailing 12-month federal receipts.
Series ID: treasury.mts.receipts
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Latest Month (Receipts)
Latest monthly receipts reading.
Series ID: treasury.mts.receipts
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
What This Means
Card-level directional interpretation of the trend state.
Series ID: treasury.mts.receipts
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Series ID: treasury.mts.outlays
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Series ID: treasury.mts.balance
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Series ID: treasury.debt.total_public
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: daily
Units: USD
Latest observation: Apr 8, 2026
Release note: Daily level series; occasional backfills and revisions can occur.
Receipts per Worker (roughly)
Trailing receipts divided by a fixed worker-count denominator.
Series ID: treasury.mts.receipts
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Outlays (TTM)
Trailing 12-month federal outlays.
Series ID: treasury.mts.outlays
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Latest Month (Outlays)
Latest monthly outlay reading.
Series ID: treasury.mts.outlays
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Deficit (TTM)
Trailing 12-month deficit level.
Series ID: treasury.mts.balance
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Latest Month (Deficit)
Latest monthly deficit reading.
Series ID: treasury.mts.balance
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Debt Level
Total public debt outstanding (gross).
Series ID: treasury.debt.total_public
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: daily
Units: USD
Latest observation: Apr 8, 2026
Release note: Daily level series; occasional backfills and revisions can occur.
Debt-to-GDP
Debt level relative to annual nominal output.
Series ID: treasury.debt.total_public
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: daily
Units: USD
Latest observation: Apr 8, 2026
Release note: Daily level series; occasional backfills and revisions can occur.
Series ID: bea.gdp.nominal
Provider: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Cadence: quarterly
Units: USD_BILLIONS
Latest observation: Oct 1, 2025
Release note: Quarterly releases with advance/second/final revisions.
Debt Growth (YoY)
Year-over-year growth rate of gross debt.
Series ID: treasury.debt.total_public
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: daily
Units: USD
Latest observation: Apr 8, 2026
Release note: Daily level series; occasional backfills and revisions can occur.
Debt per Person (roughly)
Debt level divided by a fixed U.S. population assumption.
Series ID: treasury.debt.total_public
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: daily
Units: USD
Latest observation: Apr 8, 2026
Release note: Daily level series; occasional backfills and revisions can occur.
Debt per Household (roughly)
Debt level divided by a fixed household-count assumption.
Series ID: treasury.debt.total_public
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: daily
Units: USD
Latest observation: Apr 8, 2026
Release note: Daily level series; occasional backfills and revisions can occur.
Current Growth
Current year-over-year debt growth reading.
Series ID: treasury.debt.total_public
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: daily
Units: USD
Latest observation: Apr 8, 2026
Release note: Daily level series; occasional backfills and revisions can occur.
5Y Avg Growth
Five-year average debt growth pace.
Series ID: treasury.debt.total_public
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: daily
Units: USD
Latest observation: Apr 8, 2026
Release note: Daily level series; occasional backfills and revisions can occur.
Latest Month (Interest)
Most recent gross interest outlay reading.
Series ID: treasury.mts.interest_gross
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Interest TTM
Trailing 12-month gross interest outlays.
Series ID: treasury.mts.interest_gross
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Interest / Receipts
Interest burden as a share of trailing receipts.
Series ID: treasury.mts.interest_gross
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Series ID: treasury.mts.receipts
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Interest / GDP
Interest burden as a share of nominal output.
Series ID: treasury.mts.interest_gross
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Series ID: bea.gdp.nominal
Provider: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Cadence: quarterly
Units: USD_BILLIONS
Latest observation: Oct 1, 2025
Release note: Quarterly releases with advance/second/final revisions.
Policy Rate
Effective federal funds rate level.
Series ID: fred.fed_funds.effective
Provider: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
Cadence: daily
Units: PERCENT
Latest observation: Apr 8, 2026
Release note: Daily series that can revise with benchmark updates.
Change vs 1Y Ago (Policy Rate)
Policy rate point change over roughly one year.
Series ID: fred.fed_funds.effective
Provider: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
Cadence: daily
Units: PERCENT
Latest observation: Apr 8, 2026
Release note: Daily series that can revise with benchmark updates.
Mortgage Rate
30-year fixed mortgage survey rate.
Series ID: fred.mortgage30y.fixed
Provider: FRED / Freddie Mac PMMS
Cadence: weekly
Units: PERCENT
Latest observation: Apr 9, 2026
Release note: Weekly published average.
Change vs 1Y Ago (Mortgage)
Mortgage rate point change over roughly one year.
Series ID: fred.mortgage30y.fixed
Provider: FRED / Freddie Mac PMMS
Cadence: weekly
Units: PERCENT
Latest observation: Apr 9, 2026
Release note: Weekly published average.
Payment Impact
Illustrative monthly payment effect from a 1pp rate move.
Series ID: fred.mortgage30y.fixed
Provider: FRED / Freddie Mac PMMS
Cadence: weekly
Units: PERCENT
Latest observation: Apr 9, 2026
Release note: Weekly published average.
Core CPI YoY
Year-over-year change in core CPI index.
Series ID: bls.cpi.core.index
Provider: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cadence: monthly
Units: INDEX
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Published monthly with revisions uncommon but possible.
Core CPI MoM
Month-over-month core CPI change.
Series ID: bls.cpi.core.index
Provider: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cadence: monthly
Units: INDEX
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Published monthly with revisions uncommon but possible.
Real Wage YoY
Nominal wage growth minus core inflation.
Series ID: bls.wages.hourly.nominal
Provider: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Mar 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly payroll release cadence.
Series ID: bls.cpi.core.index
Provider: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cadence: monthly
Units: INDEX
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Published monthly with revisions uncommon but possible.
Headline CPI YoY
Year-over-year change in headline CPI index.
Series ID: fred.cpi.headline
Provider: FRED / BLS
Cadence: monthly
Units: INDEX
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly index level release.
Headline vs Shelter vs Food
Rebased comparison of headline CPI, shelter CPI, and food-at-home CPI.
Series ID: fred.cpi.headline
Provider: FRED / BLS
Cadence: monthly
Units: INDEX
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly index level release.
Series ID: fred.cpi.shelter
Provider: FRED / BLS
Cadence: monthly
Units: INDEX
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly index level release.
Series ID: fred.cpi.food_home
Provider: FRED / BLS
Cadence: monthly
Units: INDEX
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly index level release.
Wages vs Inflation Gap
Difference between nominal wage growth and headline CPI growth.
Series ID: bls.wages.hourly.nominal
Provider: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Mar 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly payroll release cadence.
Series ID: fred.cpi.headline
Provider: FRED / BLS
Cadence: monthly
Units: INDEX
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly index level release.
Fed Funds Response
Policy-rate context alongside headline inflation.
Series ID: fred.fed_funds.effective
Provider: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
Cadence: daily
Units: PERCENT
Latest observation: Apr 8, 2026
Release note: Daily series that can revise with benchmark updates.
Series ID: fred.cpi.headline
Provider: FRED / BLS
Cadence: monthly
Units: INDEX
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly index level release.
Mortgage Rate vs Home Price
Joint affordability channel from financing costs and housing levels.
Series ID: fred.mortgage30y.fixed
Provider: FRED / Freddie Mac PMMS
Cadence: weekly
Units: PERCENT
Latest observation: Apr 9, 2026
Release note: Weekly published average.
Series ID: fred.housing.median_sale_price
Provider: FRED / U.S. Census Bureau
Cadence: quarterly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Oct 1, 2025
Release note: Quarterly housing release cadence.
Household Budget Shares
Major household spending shares emphasizing essentials.
Series ID: bls.cpi.core.index
Provider: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cadence: monthly
Units: INDEX
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Published monthly with revisions uncommon but possible.
Current Account / GDP
Current-account balance divided by nominal GDP.
Series ID: fred.external.current_account.netfi
Provider: FRED / BEA
Cadence: quarterly
Units: USD_BILLIONS
Latest observation: Oct 1, 2025
Release note: Quarterly release cadence with revisions possible.
Series ID: bea.gdp.nominal
Provider: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Cadence: quarterly
Units: USD_BILLIONS
Latest observation: Oct 1, 2025
Release note: Quarterly releases with advance/second/final revisions.
Net Exports Share of GDP
Net exports of goods and services as a GDP share.
Series ID: fred.external.net_exports.share_gdp
Provider: FRED / BEA
Cadence: quarterly
Units: PERCENT
Latest observation: Oct 1, 2025
Release note: Quarterly release cadence with revisions possible.
Real Broad Dollar Index
Trade-weighted inflation-adjusted U.S. dollar index.
Series ID: fred.external.dollar.real_broad
Provider: FRED / Federal Reserve Board
Cadence: monthly
Units: INDEX
Latest observation: Mar 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly trade-weighted index release cadence.
TIC Long-Term Treasury Net Purchases (TTM)
Rolling 12-month sum of foreign net U.S. sales for long-term Treasuries.
Series ID: treasury.tic.slt3.all_countries.long_term_net_sales
Provider: U.S. Treasury TIC (SLT Table 3)
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Jan 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly TIC transactions publication cadence.
Foreign Treasury Holdings vs 10Y Yield
Pressure-channel comparison of TIC holdings and 10-year Treasury yield.
Series ID: treasury.tic.slt3.all_countries.treasury_holdings
Provider: U.S. Treasury TIC (SLT Table 3)
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Jan 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly TIC holdings publication cadence.
Series ID: fred.yield.10y
Provider: FRED / U.S. Treasury
Cadence: daily
Units: PERCENT
Latest observation: Apr 8, 2026
Release note: Daily market yield series.
Net International Investment Position
U.S. net external asset-liability position.
Series ID: fred.external.niip.net
Provider: FRED / BEA
Cadence: quarterly
Units: NUMBER
Latest observation: Oct 1, 2025
Release note: Quarterly release cadence with periodic revisions.
Change vs 1Y Ago (Debt-to-GDP)
Debt-to-GDP point change from one year ago.
Series ID: treasury.debt.total_public
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: daily
Units: USD
Latest observation: Apr 8, 2026
Release note: Daily level series; occasional backfills and revisions can occur.
Series ID: bea.gdp.nominal
Provider: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Cadence: quarterly
Units: USD_BILLIONS
Latest observation: Oct 1, 2025
Release note: Quarterly releases with advance/second/final revisions.
Pressure Index
Composite Tier-2 pressure score from five rate/ratio gauges.
Series ID: treasury.mts.balance
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Series ID: treasury.debt.total_public
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: daily
Units: USD
Latest observation: Apr 8, 2026
Release note: Daily level series; occasional backfills and revisions can occur.
Series ID: treasury.mts.interest_gross
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Series ID: treasury.mts.receipts
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Series ID: bls.cpi.core.index
Provider: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cadence: monthly
Units: INDEX
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Published monthly with revisions uncommon but possible.
Series ID: bls.unemployment.u3
Provider: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cadence: monthly
Units: PERCENT
Latest observation: Mar 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly household survey release cadence.
Deficit / GDP (TTM)
Trailing deficit as a share of nominal GDP for the watchlist gauge.
Series ID: treasury.mts.balance
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Series ID: bea.gdp.nominal
Provider: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Cadence: quarterly
Units: USD_BILLIONS
Latest observation: Oct 1, 2025
Release note: Quarterly releases with advance/second/final revisions.
Debt Growth Rate (YoY)
Watchlist view of debt year-over-year growth.
Series ID: treasury.debt.total_public
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: daily
Units: USD
Latest observation: Apr 8, 2026
Release note: Daily level series; occasional backfills and revisions can occur.
Interest Burden (TTM / receipts)
Trailing gross interest outlays as a share of trailing receipts.
Series ID: treasury.mts.interest_gross
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Series ID: treasury.mts.receipts
Provider: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Cadence: monthly
Units: USD
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly publication cadence with occasional revisions.
Inflation (Core CPI YoY)
Watchlist view of core CPI year-over-year inflation.
Series ID: bls.cpi.core.index
Provider: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cadence: monthly
Units: INDEX
Latest observation: Feb 1, 2026
Release note: Published monthly with revisions uncommon but possible.
Unemployment (U-3)
Watchlist view of U-3 unemployment rate.
Series ID: bls.unemployment.u3
Provider: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cadence: monthly
Units: PERCENT
Latest observation: Mar 1, 2026
Release note: Monthly household survey release cadence.
Metric Definitions
All metric chips in the story and read-more module resolve to these entries.
GDP Level
Definition: Nominal gross domestic product in current dollars.
Why it matters: This is the river size in the story: larger output can carry more fiscal load.
Formula: BEA quarterly nominal GDP level, displayed directly.
Display units: USD billions
Source series: bea.gdp.nominal
QoQ Change
Definition: Quarter-over-quarter percent change in nominal GDP.
Why it matters: Shows the near-term speed of capacity growth.
Formula: ((GDP_t / GDP_t-1) - 1) * 100
Display units: Percent
Source series: bea.gdp.nominal
YoY Change
Definition: Year-over-year percent change in nominal GDP.
Why it matters: Compares current output with the same quarter a year earlier.
Formula: ((GDP_t / GDP_t-4) - 1) * 100
Display units: Percent
Source series: bea.gdp.nominal
Receipts (TTM)
Definition: Trailing 12-month federal receipts.
Why it matters: Smooths month-to-month noise in inflow.
Formula: Sum of the latest 12 Monthly Treasury Statement receipts observations.
Display units: USD
Source series: treasury.mts.receipts
Latest Month (Receipts)
Definition: Latest monthly receipts reading.
Why it matters: Shows near-term shifts before TTM fully absorbs them.
Formula: Most recent Monthly Treasury Statement receipts value.
Display units: USD
Source series: treasury.mts.receipts
What This Means
Definition: Card-level directional interpretation of the trend state.
Why it matters: Turns movement into a plain-language cue for non-technical readers.
Formula: Derived from trend direction and card context text.
Display units: Narrative label
Source series: treasury.mts.receipts, treasury.mts.outlays, treasury.mts.balance, treasury.debt.total_public
Receipts per Worker (roughly)
Definition: Trailing receipts divided by a fixed worker-count denominator.
Why it matters: Translates macro dollars into an intuitive scale.
Formula: Receipts TTM / 161 million workers (fixed assumption).
Display units: USD per worker (illustrative)
Source series: treasury.mts.receipts
Outlays (TTM)
Definition: Trailing 12-month federal outlays.
Why it matters: Captures spending pressure after smoothing monthly spikes.
Formula: Sum of the latest 12 Monthly Treasury Statement outlays observations.
Display units: USD
Source series: treasury.mts.outlays
Latest Month (Outlays)
Definition: Latest monthly outlay reading.
Why it matters: Flags fresh spending acceleration or cooling.
Formula: Most recent Monthly Treasury Statement outlays value.
Display units: USD
Source series: treasury.mts.outlays
Deficit (TTM)
Definition: Trailing 12-month deficit level.
Why it matters: Shows annualized fiscal gap after smoothing monthly volatility.
Formula: TTM sum of inverted Treasury balance (deficit treated as positive pressure).
Display units: USD
Source series: treasury.mts.balance
Latest Month (Deficit)
Definition: Latest monthly deficit reading.
Why it matters: Early signal for direction shifts in the fiscal gap.
Formula: Most recent monthly Treasury balance, sign-flipped to deficit-positive display.
Display units: USD
Source series: treasury.mts.balance
Debt Level
Definition: Total public debt outstanding (gross).
Why it matters: Represents cumulative water level already being carried.
Formula: Treasury Debt to the Penny total public debt outstanding series.
Display units: USD
Source series: treasury.debt.total_public
Debt-to-GDP
Definition: Debt level relative to annual nominal output.
Why it matters: Capacity ratio for how much debt the economy is carrying.
Formula: (Total public debt / nominal GDP) * 100 using quarter-aligned dates.
Display units: Percent
Source series: treasury.debt.total_public, bea.gdp.nominal
Debt Growth (YoY)
Definition: Year-over-year growth rate of gross debt.
Why it matters: Captures how fast debt stock is climbing.
Formula: ((Debt_t / Debt_t-365d) - 1) * 100
Display units: Percent
Source series: treasury.debt.total_public
Debt per Person (roughly)
Definition: Debt level divided by a fixed U.S. population assumption.
Why it matters: Translates macro debt stock to an intuitive person-scale figure.
Formula: Debt level / 336 million population (fixed assumption).
Display units: USD per person (illustrative)
Source series: treasury.debt.total_public
Debt per Household (roughly)
Definition: Debt level divided by a fixed household-count assumption.
Why it matters: Helps readers feel debt scale in household terms.
Formula: Debt level / 132 million households (fixed assumption).
Display units: USD per household (illustrative)
Source series: treasury.debt.total_public
Current Growth
Definition: Current year-over-year debt growth reading.
Why it matters: Shows present debt growth speed versus longer-run context.
Formula: Latest YoY debt growth from daily debt series.
Display units: Percent
Source series: treasury.debt.total_public
5Y Avg Growth
Definition: Five-year average debt growth pace.
Why it matters: Baseline for whether current growth is above or below trend.
Formula: Average of YoY debt growth series over trailing 5 years.
Display units: Percent
Source series: treasury.debt.total_public
Latest Month (Interest)
Definition: Most recent gross interest outlay reading.
Why it matters: Shows current maintenance bill level before annual smoothing.
Formula: Most recent Monthly Treasury Statement gross interest value.
Display units: USD
Source series: treasury.mts.interest_gross
Interest TTM
Definition: Trailing 12-month gross interest outlays.
Why it matters: Shows annualized maintenance cost of carrying debt.
Formula: Sum of latest 12 gross interest observations.
Display units: USD
Source series: treasury.mts.interest_gross
Interest / Receipts
Definition: Interest burden as a share of trailing receipts.
Why it matters: Measures how much inflow is consumed by maintenance.
Formula: (Interest TTM / Receipts TTM) * 100
Display units: Percent
Source series: treasury.mts.interest_gross, treasury.mts.receipts
Interest / GDP
Definition: Interest burden as a share of nominal output.
Why it matters: Capacity check for carrying maintenance costs economy-wide.
Formula: (Interest TTM / annualized nominal GDP dollars) * 100
Display units: Percent
Source series: treasury.mts.interest_gross, bea.gdp.nominal
Policy Rate
Definition: Effective federal funds rate level.
Why it matters: Primary policy-rate signal influencing system-wide borrowing costs.
Formula: Latest effective fed funds observation.
Display units: Percent
Source series: fred.fed_funds.effective
Change vs 1Y Ago (Policy Rate)
Definition: Policy rate point change over roughly one year.
Why it matters: Magnitude of recent tightening or easing.
Formula: Latest rate minus value around 365 days earlier, expressed in percentage points.
Display units: Percentage points
Source series: fred.fed_funds.effective
Mortgage Rate
Definition: 30-year fixed mortgage survey rate.
Why it matters: Direct household financing channel from macro rates to budgets.
Formula: Latest weekly 30-year mortgage rate.
Display units: Percent
Source series: fred.mortgage30y.fixed
Change vs 1Y Ago (Mortgage)
Definition: Mortgage rate point change over roughly one year.
Why it matters: Signals year-over-year affordability shift in financing costs.
Formula: Latest mortgage rate minus value around 52 weeks earlier.
Display units: Percentage points
Source series: fred.mortgage30y.fixed
Payment Impact
Definition: Illustrative monthly payment effect from a 1pp rate move.
Why it matters: Translates abstract rate changes into household cash flow impact.
Formula: Monthly payment at current rate minus payment at (rate - 1pp) on a $400k 30-year loan.
Display units: USD per month (illustrative)
Source series: fred.mortgage30y.fixed
Core CPI YoY
Definition: Year-over-year change in core CPI index.
Why it matters: High-level inflation pressure signal often tied to rate responses.
Formula: ((Core CPI_t / Core CPI_t-12) - 1) * 100
Display units: Percent
Source series: bls.cpi.core.index
Core CPI MoM
Definition: Month-over-month core CPI change.
Why it matters: Near-term inflation momentum check.
Formula: ((Core CPI_t / Core CPI_t-1) - 1) * 100
Display units: Percent
Source series: bls.cpi.core.index
Real Wage YoY
Definition: Nominal wage growth minus core inflation.
Why it matters: Proxy for purchasing-power direction in labor income.
Formula: Wage YoY - Core CPI YoY
Display units: Percent
Source series: bls.wages.hourly.nominal, bls.cpi.core.index
Headline CPI YoY
Definition: Year-over-year change in headline CPI index.
Why it matters: Opening inflation signal for broad household price pressure.
Formula: ((Headline CPI_t / Headline CPI_t-12) - 1) * 100
Display units: Percent
Source series: fred.cpi.headline
Headline vs Shelter vs Food
Definition: Rebased comparison of headline CPI, shelter CPI, and food-at-home CPI.
Why it matters: Shows that households feel category inflation differently from the average basket.
Formula: Each index rebased to 100 at the common starting observation date.
Display units: Index (rebase=100)
Source series: fred.cpi.headline, fred.cpi.shelter, fred.cpi.food_home
Wages vs Inflation Gap
Definition: Difference between nominal wage growth and headline CPI growth.
Why it matters: Approximates whether purchasing power is improving or compressing.
Formula: Average hourly earnings YoY minus headline CPI YoY.
Display units: Percentage points
Source series: bls.wages.hourly.nominal, fred.cpi.headline
Fed Funds Response
Definition: Policy-rate context alongside headline inflation.
Why it matters: Shows monetary-policy response timing relative to inflation pressure.
Formula: Displays effective fed funds rate and headline CPI YoY trend together.
Display units: Percent
Source series: fred.fed_funds.effective, fred.cpi.headline
Mortgage Rate vs Home Price
Definition: Joint affordability channel from financing costs and housing levels.
Why it matters: Affordability can worsen even if home-price acceleration cools.
Formula: Compares mortgage rates with median home-price trend context.
Display units: Mixed (percent + USD level context)
Source series: fred.mortgage30y.fixed, fred.housing.median_sale_price
Household Budget Shares
Definition: Major household spending shares emphasizing essentials.
Why it matters: Inflation hurts most where budgets are largest and hardest to avoid.
Formula: Latest BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey major-category share snapshot.
Display units: Percent of household spending
Source series: bls.cpi.core.index
Current Account / GDP
Definition: Current-account balance divided by nominal GDP.
Why it matters: High-level external-balance gauge scaled to economy size.
Formula: (NETFI / nominal GDP) * 100, using quarter-aligned observations.
Display units: Percent of GDP
Source series: fred.external.current_account.netfi, bea.gdp.nominal
Net Exports Share of GDP
Definition: Net exports of goods and services as a GDP share.
Why it matters: Shows how global trade demand feeds into domestic growth accounting.
Formula: Published BEA share series A019RE1Q156NBEA from FRED.
Display units: Percent of GDP
Source series: fred.external.net_exports.share_gdp
Real Broad Dollar Index
Definition: Trade-weighted inflation-adjusted U.S. dollar index.
Why it matters: Captures one key channel from global finance into domestic pricing and competitiveness.
Formula: Published RTWEXBGS index level from FRED.
Display units: Index
Source series: fred.external.dollar.real_broad
TIC Long-Term Treasury Net Purchases (TTM)
Definition: Rolling 12-month sum of foreign net U.S. sales for long-term Treasuries.
Why it matters: Smooths monthly TIC flow noise to reveal financing signal direction.
Formula: 12-month rolling sum of TIC SLT Table 3 all-country for_lt_treas_net values.
Display units: USD
Source series: treasury.tic.slt3.all_countries.long_term_net_sales
Foreign Treasury Holdings vs 10Y Yield
Definition: Pressure-channel comparison of TIC holdings and 10-year Treasury yield.
Why it matters: Keeps external-demand context visible without claiming one-variable control of rates.
Formula: TIC holdings compared with monthly-averaged DGS10 yield in a shared normalized chart view.
Display units: Mixed channel comparison
Source series: treasury.tic.slt3.all_countries.treasury_holdings, fred.yield.10y
Net International Investment Position
Definition: U.S. net external asset-liability position.
Why it matters: Long-run stock scoreboard for cumulative external imbalances and valuation effects.
Formula: Published BEA NIIP series IIPUSNETIQ from FRED.
Display units: USD billions (story display)
Source series: fred.external.niip.net
Change vs 1Y Ago (Debt-to-GDP)
Definition: Debt-to-GDP point change from one year ago.
Why it matters: Shows whether capacity pressure is widening or easing.
Formula: Latest debt-to-GDP minus value from roughly four quarters earlier.
Display units: Percentage points
Source series: treasury.debt.total_public, bea.gdp.nominal
Pressure Index
Definition: Composite Tier-2 pressure score from five rate/ratio gauges.
Why it matters: Directional summary for quick monitoring across key channels.
Formula: For each gauge, score = 0.5 * percentile rank (vs 1990+ monthly history) + 0.5 * sigmoid danger score. Pressure Index = equal-weight average of gauge scores, then 3-month EMA smoothing.
Display units: Index (0-100 directional scale)
Source series: treasury.mts.balance, treasury.debt.total_public, treasury.mts.interest_gross, treasury.mts.receipts, bls.cpi.core.index, bls.unemployment.u3
Deficit / GDP (TTM)
Definition: Trailing deficit as a share of nominal GDP for the watchlist gauge.
Why it matters: Quick scoreboard read of fiscal gap pressure.
Formula: (Deficit TTM / GDP annual-rate dollars at or before the same date) * 100
Display units: Percent
Source series: treasury.mts.balance, bea.gdp.nominal
Debt Growth Rate (YoY)
Definition: Watchlist view of debt year-over-year growth.
Why it matters: Tracks water-level acceleration risk.
Formula: YoY percent change from total public debt series.
Display units: Percent
Source series: treasury.debt.total_public
Interest Burden (TTM / receipts)
Definition: Trailing gross interest outlays as a share of trailing receipts.
Why it matters: Maintenance burden gauge for how much inflow is consumed by interest.
Formula: (Interest TTM / Receipts TTM) * 100
Display units: Percent
Source series: treasury.mts.interest_gross, treasury.mts.receipts
Inflation (Core CPI YoY)
Definition: Watchlist view of core CPI year-over-year inflation.
Why it matters: Price-pressure input in the composite gauge.
Formula: Core CPI YoY used in the pressure index.
Display units: Percent
Source series: bls.cpi.core.index
Unemployment (U-3)
Definition: Watchlist view of U-3 unemployment rate.
Why it matters: Labor slack input used in the composite gauge.
Formula: Latest unemployment rate reading.
Display units: Percent
Source series: bls.unemployment.u3
Transformations
Derived metrics are formula-driven and reusable across cards.
Trailing 12-month Sum (TTM)
Smooths monthly volatility by summing the latest 12 observations.
Formula: TTM_t = sum(x_t-11 ... x_t)
Used by: receipts_ttm, outlays_ttm, deficit_ttm, interest_ttm
Year-over-year Percent Change
Compares a value to the same period roughly one year earlier.
Formula: YoY_t = ((x_t / x_t-12_or_365d) - 1) * 100
Used by: gdp_yoy_change, debt_growth_yoy, debt_growth_current, core_cpi_yoy, real_wage_yoy, debt_growth_rate_watch, inflation_watch
Month-over-month Percent Change
Compares the latest monthly value with the immediate prior month.
Formula: MoM_t = ((x_t / x_t-1) - 1) * 100
Used by: core_cpi_mom
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Compares debt level to economy size using aligned quarter timing.
Formula: DebtToGDP_t = (Debt_t / GDP_t) * 100
Used by: debt_to_gdp, capacity_change_1y
Deficit Share of GDP (Watchlist)
Uses trailing deficit dollars as a share of nominal GDP to avoid level drift.
Formula: DeficitToGDP_t = (DeficitTTM_t / GDPAnnualized_t) * 100
Used by: deficit_trend_ttm_watch
Interest Share of Receipts
Shows what share of inflow is consumed by interest maintenance.
Formula: InterestShare_t = (InterestTTM_t / ReceiptsTTM_t) * 100
Used by: interest_to_receipts, interest_cost_ttm_watch
Interest Share of GDP
Shows maintenance burden relative to total annual output.
Formula: InterestToGDP_t = (InterestTTM_t / GDPAnnualized_t) * 100
Used by: interest_to_gdp
Real Wage Spread
Nominal wage growth net of inflation.
Formula: RealWageYoY_t = WageYoY_t - CoreCPIYoY_t
Used by: real_wage_yoy
Composite Pressure Index
Equal-weight average of five gauge scores, where each gauge blends percentile rank with danger-zone shaping.
Formula: GaugeScore_i_t = 0.5*Percentile_i_t + 0.5*Danger_i_t; Danger_i_t = 100*sigmoid((x_i_t-target_i)/scale_i). Targets/scales: deficit/GDP 3/1.5, debt growth 5/1.5, interest/receipts 12/3, core CPI YoY 2/1, unemployment 5.5/0.8. PressureRaw_t = avg(GaugeScore_1..5), Pressure_t = EMA_3(PressureRaw_t).
Used by: pressure_index
Alignment Rules
Frequency mismatches are handled explicitly to avoid accidental look-ahead or false precision.
Quarterly Debt and GDP Alignment
Debt observations are matched at or before each GDP quarter-end date to avoid look-ahead bias in debt-to-GDP.
Mixed Cadence Handling
Daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly series keep native cadence in charts; comparisons use derived transforms where needed.
Watchlist Monthly Conversion
Watchlist gauges are converted to one non-null observation per month (last available point) before percentile scoring and EMA smoothing.
Publication Lag Transparency
Story cards can display different as-of dates. A lag note is shown when series dates spread materially.
Data Quality / Sanity Checks
Guardrails prevent obviously broken values from silently flowing into story conclusions.
Series-level plausible bounds (for example unemployment 0-25%, debt > $1T).
If it fails: Out-of-range point is nulled, anomaly is recorded, and card gracefully degrades if needed.
Metric-level guardrails (for example debt-to-GDP and CPI YoY sanity ranges).
If it fails: Metric is nulled and anomaly message is surfaced in card diagnostics.
Freshness windows by cadence (daily/weekly/monthly/quarterly).
If it fails: Builder attempts live fetch fallback before returning stale DB observations.
Rounding + Display Rules
Formatting is for readability, not precision inflation.
- Large currency values are compacted to K/M/B/T for readability, with full values available in context.
- Percent values are typically shown to one or two decimals depending on chart or metric tile context.
- Rate deltas are shown in percentage points with explicit sign (+/-).
Limitations
This project is transparent about what it can and cannot claim.
- This project is a directional monitoring tool, not a forecasting model.
- Metrics and summaries are informational and should not be interpreted as policy advice.
- Per-household, per-person, and per-worker translations use fixed denominators for comparability, not distributional precision.
- Debt level views use gross total public debt; they do not isolate debt held by the public unless explicitly noted.
- Upstream series can be revised after publication, and historical values may shift.
- Danger-zone targets and scales are explicit design choices that shape nonlinear sensitivity and should be interpreted as parameters, not economic laws.
Coverage Check
Story cards covered: 24. Metric mappings validated for every card slug and every metric definition has source links.
The River
Metric IDs: gdp_level, gdp_qoq_change, gdp_yoy_change
Definitions linked: complete.
Inflow
Metric IDs: receipts_ttm, receipts_latest_month, story_interpretation, receipts_per_worker
Definitions linked: complete.
Outflow
Metric IDs: outlays_ttm, outlays_latest_month, story_interpretation
Definitions linked: complete.
Rising Water
Metric IDs: deficit_ttm, deficit_latest_month, story_interpretation
Definitions linked: complete.
Water Level
Metric IDs: debt_level, debt_to_gdp, debt_growth_yoy, debt_per_person, debt_per_household
Definitions linked: complete.
Debt Can Be Useful
Metric IDs: debt_level, debt_growth_current, debt_growth_5y_avg, story_interpretation
Definitions linked: complete.
Maintenance Bill
Metric IDs: interest_latest_month, interest_ttm, interest_to_receipts, interest_to_gdp
Definitions linked: complete.
Rate Pressure
Metric IDs: policy_rate, policy_rate_change_1y
Definitions linked: complete.
Your Borrowing Cost
Metric IDs: mortgage_rate, mortgage_rate_change_1y, mortgage_payment_impact_1pp
Definitions linked: complete.
Inflation Pressure
Metric IDs: core_cpi_yoy, core_cpi_mom, real_wage_yoy
Definitions linked: complete.
Capacity Line
Metric IDs: debt_to_gdp, capacity_change_1y
Definitions linked: complete.
Your Five Gauges
Metric IDs: pressure_index, deficit_trend_ttm_watch, debt_growth_rate_watch, interest_cost_ttm_watch, inflation_watch, unemployment_watch
Definitions linked: complete.
The Signal
Metric IDs: headline_cpi_yoy
Definitions linked: complete.
Not All Prices Misbehave the Same Way
Metric IDs: headline_vs_shelter_vs_food
Definitions linked: complete.
Can Paychecks Keep Up?
Metric IDs: wage_vs_inflation_gap
Definitions linked: complete.
The Fed Steps In
Metric IDs: fed_funds_response
Definitions linked: complete.
Borrowing Gets Heavier
Metric IDs: mortgage_vs_home_prices
Definitions linked: complete.
Where the Budget Actually Breaks
Metric IDs: household_budget_shares
Definitions linked: complete.
The Country Is Not an Island
Metric IDs: current_account_to_gdp
Definitions linked: complete.
Trade Is a Growth Channel
Metric IDs: net_exports_share_gdp
Definitions linked: complete.
The Dollar Changes the Terms
Metric IDs: real_broad_dollar_index
Definitions linked: complete.
Somebody Has to Finance the Gap
Metric IDs: tic_long_term_net_purchases_ttm
Definitions linked: complete.
Global Money Meets U.S. Rates
Metric IDs: foreign_holdings_vs_ten_year
Definitions linked: complete.
The Balance Sheet Keeps Score
Metric IDs: niip_level
Definitions linked: complete.